"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."
— Warren Buffett
Click any pillar label to read Buffett's full reasoning. Drag sliders to stress-test the analysis.
Moatwhy
6/10
Swiss Water Decaffeinated has a narrow but real competitive advantage. There are switching costs or niche strengths in Food & beverage that protect margins today. A well-resourced competitor could replicate the model eventually, but not cheaply or quickly. Buffett rates this as defensible — monitor whether the moat is widening or narrowing over time.
Managementwhy
5/10
Management quality at Swiss Water Decaffeinated is adequate but uninspiring. Insider ownership may be limited, the capital allocation track record is mixed, or leadership is unproven in Food & beverage. Buffett is acutely sensitive to management quality in small companies where the CEO is the company. The discount to IV must compensate for this uncertainty.
Financialswhy
5/10
Swiss Water Decaffeinated's financials show meaningful weaknesses. This may include significant debt, inconsistent cash flow, or a history of equity raises. The Food & beverage sector often requires capital intensity that limits true owner earnings. Buffett would discount the apparent earnings significantly and examine the cash flow statement rigorously.
Predictabilitywhy
5/10
Swiss Water Decaffeinated's earnings visibility is limited. The Food & beverage sector produces lumpy, project-driven, or cyclically sensitive revenue that makes multi-year forecasting difficult. Buffett deliberately avoids businesses where he cannot see the future clearly. Stress-test aggressively and do not anchor to a single earnings estimate.
Margin of safetywhy
5/10
Swiss Water Decaffeinated trades near fair value. The price largely reflects business quality, leaving limited upside from multiple expansion. Investment return will approximate the underlying earnings growth rate. Buffett would not buy here unless the earnings trajectory has a high probability of positive surprise. Better opportunities likely exist elsewhere in Canadian microcap.
Radar chart — adjust sliders above to update
Composite: 5.0/10 • Verdict: Watch
Owner earnings bridge
Buffett's real number: Net income + D&A − Maintenance capex ± Working capital. Figures are indicative estimates from pillar scores — verify against company filings.
Estimated net income+$2.00M est.
Add: depreciation & amortisation+$0.28M
Less: maintenance capex-$0.34M
Less: minority interest adj.-$0.16M
Owner earnings~$1.70M
Owner earnings per share (est. 47.4M shares)$0.036/share
Price / OE at buy price N/A - verify listing status10x
Interactive DCF — adjust assumptions
Owner earnings ($M)$1.7M
Annual growth rate8%
Discount rate9%
Stock price (CAD $)$0.10
Intrinsic value per share
—
Calculating...
Bear case
—
Stress scenario
OE halved, 0% growth, 6x earnings
Base case
—
Most likely path
Current OE, 8% growth, 10x earnings
Bull case
—
Upside scenario
OE +50%, 15% growth, 14x earnings
Financial trend chart
Revenue (est.)Earnings (est.)
Investment thesis
Chemical-free decaffeination; ESG positioning; acquired/delisted - verify current status.
Primary risk
Acquired company - may no longer trade independently
Buffett's lens on each pillar
Moat (6/10)
Swiss Water Decaffeinated has a narrow but real competitive advantage. There are switching costs or niche strengths in Food & beverage that protect margins today. A well-resourced competitor could replicate the model eventually, but not cheaply or quickly. Buffett rates this as defensible — monitor ...
Management (5/10)
Management quality at Swiss Water Decaffeinated is adequate but uninspiring. Insider ownership may be limited, the capital allocation track record is mixed, or leadership is unproven in Food & beverage. Buffett is acutely sensitive to management quality in small companies where the CEO is the compan...
Financials (5/10)
Swiss Water Decaffeinated's financials show meaningful weaknesses. This may include significant debt, inconsistent cash flow, or a history of equity raises. The Food & beverage sector often requires capital intensity that limits true owner earnings. Buffett would discount the apparent earnings s...
Predictability (5/10)
Swiss Water Decaffeinated's earnings visibility is limited. The Food & beverage sector produces lumpy, project-driven, or cyclically sensitive revenue that makes multi-year forecasting difficult. Buffett deliberately avoids businesses where he cannot see the future clearly. Stress-test aggressiv...
Margin of safety (5/10)
Swiss Water Decaffeinated trades near fair value. The price largely reflects business quality, leaving limited upside from multiple expansion. Investment return will approximate the underlying earnings growth rate. Buffett would not buy here unless the earnings trajectory has a high probability of p...
Final verdict: Watch
Target buy price: N/A - verify listing status — 25% margin of safety on base-case intrinsic value.
Overall score: 5/10.
No current dividend.
Overall score: 5/10.
No current dividend.
Verdict
Buffett / Munger
Watch
5/10
Composite score
Target buy price
N/A - verify listing status
25% MoS on base-case intrinsic value
Checklist
DividendNo
Moat6/10
Mgmt5/10
Financials5/10
Predictability5/10
Margin of safety5/10
Pillar bars
Moat6
Mgmt5
Fin5
Pred5
MoS5