"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."
— Warren Buffett
Click any pillar label to read Buffett's full reasoning. Drag sliders to stress-test the analysis.
Moatwhy
4/10
NeuPath Health operates in Healthcare with limited structural differentiation. Competition is possible without significant barriers. The business competes on service, relationships, or price rather than structural advantage. Buffett would require a meaningful discount to intrinsic value to compensate for the absence of a durable moat.
Managementwhy
5/10
Management quality at NeuPath Health is adequate but uninspiring. Insider ownership may be limited, the capital allocation track record is mixed, or leadership is unproven in Healthcare. Buffett is acutely sensitive to management quality in small companies where the CEO is the company. The discount to IV must compensate for this uncertainty.
Financialswhy
4/10
NeuPath Health's financials show meaningful weaknesses. This may include significant debt, inconsistent cash flow, or a history of equity raises. The Healthcare sector often requires capital intensity that limits true owner earnings. Buffett would discount the apparent earnings significantly and examine the cash flow statement rigorously.
Predictabilitywhy
5/10
NeuPath Health's earnings visibility is limited. The Healthcare sector produces lumpy, project-driven, or cyclically sensitive revenue that makes multi-year forecasting difficult. Buffett deliberately avoids businesses where he cannot see the future clearly. Stress-test aggressively and do not anchor to a single earnings estimate.
Margin of safetywhy
6/10
NeuPath Health trades at a reasonable discount to intrinsic value — not a screaming bargain, but attractive for a quality business. The margin of safety is sufficient for a patient 3-5 year investor. Buffett: 'Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.' At these levels, the investor pays a fair price for a good business rather than a dear price for an average one.
Radar chart — adjust sliders above to update
Composite: 4.0/10 • Verdict: Pass
Owner earnings bridge
Buffett's real number: Net income + D&A − Maintenance capex ± Working capital. Figures are indicative estimates from pillar scores — verify against company filings.
Estimated net income+$1.60M est.
Add: depreciation & amortisation+$0.22M
Less: maintenance capex-$0.27M
Less: minority interest adj.-$0.13M
Owner earnings~$1.36M
Owner earnings per share (est. 47.4M shares)$0.029/share
Price / OE at buy price C$0.258x
Interactive DCF — adjust assumptions
Owner earnings ($M)$1.4M
Annual growth rate8%
Discount rate9%
Stock price (CAD $)$0.25
Intrinsic value per share
—
Calculating...
Bear case
—
Stress scenario
OE halved, 0% growth, 6x earnings
Base case
—
Most likely path
Current OE, 8% growth, 8x earnings
Bull case
—
Upside scenario
OE +50%, 15% growth, 12x earnings
Financial trend chart
Revenue (est.)Earnings (est.)
Investment thesis
Chronic pain and cannabis-based clinic network; recurring patient visits.
Primary risk
Physician staffing; government funding dependency
Buffett's lens on each pillar
Moat (4/10)
NeuPath Health operates in Healthcare with limited structural differentiation. Competition is possible without significant barriers. The business competes on service, relationships, or price rather than structural advantage. Buffett would require a meaningful discount to intrinsic value to compensat...
Management (5/10)
Management quality at NeuPath Health is adequate but uninspiring. Insider ownership may be limited, the capital allocation track record is mixed, or leadership is unproven in Healthcare. Buffett is acutely sensitive to management quality in small companies where the CEO is the company. The discount ...
Financials (4/10)
NeuPath Health's financials show meaningful weaknesses. This may include significant debt, inconsistent cash flow, or a history of equity raises. The Healthcare sector often requires capital intensity that limits true owner earnings. Buffett would discount the apparent earnings significantly and...
Predictability (5/10)
NeuPath Health's earnings visibility is limited. The Healthcare sector produces lumpy, project-driven, or cyclically sensitive revenue that makes multi-year forecasting difficult. Buffett deliberately avoids businesses where he cannot see the future clearly. Stress-test aggressively and do not a...
Margin of safety (6/10)
NeuPath Health trades at a reasonable discount to intrinsic value — not a screaming bargain, but attractive for a quality business. The margin of safety is sufficient for a patient 3-5 year investor. Buffett: 'Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.' At these levels, the investor pays ...
Final verdict: Pass
Target buy price: C$0.25 — 25% margin of safety on base-case intrinsic value.
Overall score: 4/10.
No current dividend.
Overall score: 4/10.
No current dividend.
Verdict
Buffett / Munger
Pass
4/10
Composite score
Target buy price
C$0.25
25% MoS on base-case intrinsic value
Checklist
DividendNo
Moat4/10
Mgmt5/10
Financials4/10
Predictability5/10
Margin of safety6/10
Pillar bars
Moat4
Mgmt5
Fin4
Pred5
MoS6