"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."
— Warren Buffett
Click any pillar label to read Buffett's full reasoning. Drag sliders to stress-test the analysis.
Moatwhy
5/10
Cematrix operates in Industrial with limited structural differentiation. Competition is possible without significant barriers. The business competes on service, relationships, or price rather than structural advantage. Buffett would require a meaningful discount to intrinsic value to compensate for the absence of a durable moat.
Managementwhy
6/10
Management at Cematrix shows reasonable alignment. There is credible insider ownership and a coherent strategic track record, though the history may be shorter or capital allocation choices have been mixed. Worth following but not yet deserving of the full Buffett trust premium. Monitor capital allocation decisions closely.
Financialswhy
5/10
Cematrix's financials show meaningful weaknesses. This may include significant debt, inconsistent cash flow, or a history of equity raises. The Industrial sector often requires capital intensity that limits true owner earnings. Buffett would discount the apparent earnings significantly and examine the cash flow statement rigorously.
Predictabilitywhy
5/10
Cematrix's earnings visibility is limited. The Industrial sector produces lumpy, project-driven, or cyclically sensitive revenue that makes multi-year forecasting difficult. Buffett deliberately avoids businesses where he cannot see the future clearly. Stress-test aggressively and do not anchor to a single earnings estimate.
Margin of safetywhy
6/10
Cematrix trades at a reasonable discount to intrinsic value — not a screaming bargain, but attractive for a quality business. The margin of safety is sufficient for a patient 3-5 year investor. Buffett: 'Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.' At these levels, the investor pays a fair price for a good business rather than a dear price for an average one.
Radar chart — adjust sliders above to update
Composite: 5.0/10 • Verdict: Watch
Owner earnings bridge
Buffett's real number: Net income + D&A − Maintenance capex ± Working capital. Figures are indicative estimates from pillar scores — verify against company filings.
Estimated net income+$2.00M est.
Add: depreciation & amortisation+$0.28M
Less: maintenance capex-$0.34M
Less: minority interest adj.-$0.16M
Owner earnings~$1.70M
Owner earnings per share (est. 47.4M shares)$0.036/share
Price / OE at buy price C$0.4510x
Interactive DCF — adjust assumptions
Owner earnings ($M)$1.7M
Annual growth rate8%
Discount rate9%
Stock price (CAD $)$0.45
Intrinsic value per share
—
Calculating...
Bear case
—
Stress scenario
OE halved, 0% growth, 6x earnings
Base case
—
Most likely path
Current OE, 8% growth, 10x earnings
Bull case
—
Upside scenario
OE +50%, 15% growth, 14x earnings
Financial trend chart
Revenue (est.)Earnings (est.)
Investment thesis
Cellular concrete solutions; infrastructure niche; growing backlog.
Primary risk
Project-based revenue; input cost volatility
Buffett's lens on each pillar
Moat (5/10)
Cematrix operates in Industrial with limited structural differentiation. Competition is possible without significant barriers. The business competes on service, relationships, or price rather than structural advantage. Buffett would require a meaningful discount to intrinsic value to compensate for ...
Management (6/10)
Management at Cematrix shows reasonable alignment. There is credible insider ownership and a coherent strategic track record, though the history may be shorter or capital allocation choices have been mixed. Worth following but not yet deserving of the full Buffett trust premium. Monitor capital allo...
Financials (5/10)
Cematrix's financials show meaningful weaknesses. This may include significant debt, inconsistent cash flow, or a history of equity raises. The Industrial sector often requires capital intensity that limits true owner earnings. Buffett would discount the apparent earnings significantly and exami...
Predictability (5/10)
Cematrix's earnings visibility is limited. The Industrial sector produces lumpy, project-driven, or cyclically sensitive revenue that makes multi-year forecasting difficult. Buffett deliberately avoids businesses where he cannot see the future clearly. Stress-test aggressively and do not anchor ...
Margin of safety (6/10)
Cematrix trades at a reasonable discount to intrinsic value — not a screaming bargain, but attractive for a quality business. The margin of safety is sufficient for a patient 3-5 year investor. Buffett: 'Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.' At these levels, the investor pays a fair...
Final verdict: Watch
Target buy price: C$0.45 — 25% margin of safety on base-case intrinsic value.
Overall score: 5/10.
No current dividend.
Overall score: 5/10.
No current dividend.
Verdict
Buffett / Munger
Watch
5/10
Composite score
Target buy price
C$0.45
25% MoS on base-case intrinsic value
Checklist
DividendNo
Moat5/10
Mgmt6/10
Financials5/10
Predictability5/10
Margin of safety6/10
Pillar bars
Moat5
Mgmt6
Fin5
Pred5
MoS6