"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."
— Warren Buffett
Click any pillar label to read Buffett's full reasoning. Drag sliders to stress-test the analysis.
Moatwhy
3/10
Auxly Cannabis lacks a discernible economic moat in Cannabis. No pricing power, no switching costs, no network effects. Buffett: 'When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, the reputation of the business remains intact.' Price must reflect this structural weakness.
Managementwhy
3/10
Management at Auxly Cannabis raises concerns about minority shareholder alignment. This may include dilutive issuances, poorly-timed acquisitions, excessive pay, or lack of meaningful ownership. Buffett's warning: 'Somebody is always doing something stupid in the stock market, and it is usually the people being paid the most.' Significant caution warranted.
Financialswhy
2/10
Auxly Cannabis's financial position is weak. High debt, negative or erratic free cash flow, and potentially a history of dilutive capital raises make this structurally challenged. Buffett: 'Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.' A fragile balance sheet means no margin for error.
Predictabilitywhy
2/10
Auxly Cannabis's earnings are essentially unpredictable — pre-revenue, highly cyclical, or subject to major external variables. Standard DCF analysis requires fundamental earnings power as an anchor; without it, the investment becomes speculative. Suitable only under a deep-value or option-like framework, not a Buffett compounding thesis.
Margin of safetywhy
3/10
Auxly Cannabis appears overvalued relative to intrinsic value on a conservative Buffett DCF. The market price prices in optimistic scenarios, leaving no room for error. Graham's margin of safety principle — buying at a significant discount to protect against both analytical error and bad luck — is violated here. Wait for a materially lower price.
Radar chart — adjust sliders above to update
Composite: 2.0/10 • Verdict: Avoid
Owner earnings bridge
Buffett's real number: Net income + D&A − Maintenance capex ± Working capital. Figures are indicative estimates from pillar scores — verify against company filings.
Estimated net income+$0.80M est.
Add: depreciation & amortisation+$0.11M
Less: maintenance capex-$0.14M
Less: minority interest adj.-$0.06M
Owner earnings~$0.68M
Owner earnings per share (est. 47.4M shares)$0.014/share
Price / OE at buy price N/A8x
Interactive DCF — adjust assumptions
Owner earnings ($M)$0.7M
Annual growth rate8%
Discount rate9%
Stock price (CAD $)$0.10
Intrinsic value per share
—
Calculating...
Bear case
—
Stress scenario
OE halved, 0% growth, 6x earnings
Base case
—
Most likely path
Current OE, 8% growth, 8x earnings
Bull case
—
Upside scenario
OE +50%, 15% growth, 12x earnings
Financial trend chart
Revenue (est.)Earnings (est.)
Investment thesis
Cannabis sector structural oversupply; persistent losses; debt heavy.
Primary risk
Sector oversupply; balance sheet stress
Buffett's lens on each pillar
Moat (3/10)
Auxly Cannabis lacks a discernible economic moat in Cannabis. No pricing power, no switching costs, no network effects. Buffett: 'When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, the reputation of the business remains intact.' Price m...
Management (3/10)
Management at Auxly Cannabis raises concerns about minority shareholder alignment. This may include dilutive issuances, poorly-timed acquisitions, excessive pay, or lack of meaningful ownership. Buffett's warning: 'Somebody is always doing something stupid in the stock market, and it is usua...
Financials (2/10)
Auxly Cannabis's financial position is weak. High debt, negative or erratic free cash flow, and potentially a history of dilutive capital raises make this structurally challenged. Buffett: 'Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.' A fragile balance sheet means ...
Predictability (2/10)
Auxly Cannabis's earnings are essentially unpredictable — pre-revenue, highly cyclical, or subject to major external variables. Standard DCF analysis requires fundamental earnings power as an anchor; without it, the investment becomes speculative. Suitable only under a deep-value or option-like ...
Margin of safety (3/10)
Auxly Cannabis appears overvalued relative to intrinsic value on a conservative Buffett DCF. The market price prices in optimistic scenarios, leaving no room for error. Graham's margin of safety principle — buying at a significant discount to protect against both analytical error and bad luck — ...
Final verdict: Avoid
Target buy price: N/A — 25% margin of safety on base-case intrinsic value.
Overall score: 2/10.
No current dividend.
Overall score: 2/10.
No current dividend.
Verdict
Buffett / Munger
Avoid
2/10
Composite score
Target buy price
N/A
25% MoS on base-case intrinsic value
Checklist
DividendNo
Moat3/10
Mgmt3/10
Financials2/10
Predictability2/10
Margin of safety3/10
Pillar bars
Moat3
Mgmt3
Fin2
Pred2
MoS3